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Global Trade Data
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World Economics, December 2019
There are serious problems with official trade statistics since according to the IMF in 2016 the world imported US$339 billion more than it exported. The Ricardian concept of comparative advantage in final goods is no longer fully relevant to explain trade between countries and the solution is to operate a paradigm shift in the packaging and interpretation of trade data. The accuracy and reliability of data is affected by a number of key biases separate from data quality issues and misreporting. The main problems are trade data asymmetries; the Rotterdam Effect and the impact of global value chains. Until this happens international trade statistics will be used as evidence of global trade imbalances and form the basis of potentially misguided policies aimed at their correction.
How to Increase your Countries GDP
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World Economics, December 2019
There are three ways to increase the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of any country. First, by producing more goods and services in a given time frame. This is not easy. Second, by fiddling the figures, a method often adopted by politicians of all kinds, as the economist John Kay illustrated in an article in the Financial Times titled: “Politicians will always succumb to the need to bend data“ (and this in relation to the UK!) There are many ways to do this, and it’s the easiest, cheapest and quickest method. There are only two downsides. First you may be found out. Second, “bending “or otherwise fiddling GDP data may lead to the adoption of seriously erroneous policy decisions. It’s all too easy to believe your own lies... A third method, and the one on which this paper will focus is to measure the output already produced more accurately. Usually but not universally this produces a significant increase in GDP, with many beneficial effects. This method is also relatively easy (no rocket science involved), and cheap (and can easily pay for itself in reduced debt servicing charges). Furthermore, unlike actually producing more goods and services, it doesn’t contribute to global warming.
Why Price Data Are Mostly Wrong
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World Economics, April 2020
Is US GDP 51% bigger than China’s? Or is China 2.4% bigger than the US? It’s all down to how you measure prices. Here’s why…
Capacity Ratings for National Statistics Offices
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World Economics, April 2020
Which country offices can produce good economic data?
GDP per Capita Data Quality Ratings
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World Economics, April 2020
There is no summary available for this paper.
Global Population Data Quality Ratings
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World Economics, April 2020
There is no summary available for this paper.
The Alarming Problems Caused By Misleading Trade Data
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World Economics, March 2020
The fact that world exports do not match world imports indicates that there are serious problems with official trade statistics. Far too few economists and politicians will try to understand the murky reality behind these increasingly unreliable data.
Data Quality Rating: China
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World Economics, September 2019
The quality of GDP data in China is improving, and up to date in many respects. But is still some way from good quality. Use with caution!
The Data Quality Index
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World Economics, June 2017
GDP data is important used to apportion funds from international organisations, to influence rating agency decisions and much more, but official data is totally inadequate for the demands made of it. The notion of GDP data is flawed conceptually, but there are also severe methodological issues that need to be addressed prior to making international comparisons and assessing data reliability. World Economics has created an interactive Data Quality Index for users of economic data which considers five readily measurable factors that influence data reliability across countries. The Data Quality Index ranks 154 countries based on an equal weighting of the five factors, but users can adjust the importance of each to their data needs.
Measuring GDP in Europe
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World Economics, June 2015
In Europe the quality of national income statistics is less constrained by the capacity and resources devoted by national statistics offices to follow international best practice than is the case in many other parts of the world. In addition the members of the European Union have to meet the harmonised standards of national accounting set by Eurostat which are based on the United Nations System on National Accounts. However, despite recent modifications both these standards fail to adequately record the size of the informal economy.
Measuring The Americas GDP
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World Economics, March 2015
The Americas, comprising the USA and Canada, the Spanish speaking countries of South and Central America plus Brazil and the Caribbean, is a region displaying large differences in living standards. The availability of resources has an impact on the quality and reliability of economic statistics. Chile and Mexico, both OECD members, produce economic data that can be compared favourably with the USA, Canada and many European countries. In other countries out of date base years, outdated national income accounting standards and problems in recording the size of the informal economy mean that GDP figures are likely to be underestimated. The most insidious problem in the region arises from the political manipulation of economic data in Argentina which has led to a censure of the government by the IMF.
World Price Index
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World Economics, November 2012
The World Price Index (WPI) is an attempt at producing a timely usable index for frequent international economic comparisons. It is intended for companies that transact across countries and currencies, for governments and for international non-governmental institutions. Published monthly, the WPI is a regular index of international relative urban consumer prices, one value for each country, calculated initially for 10 countries to reflect the amount of local currency needed to buy the same representative basket of items in each country as could be bought for exactly $1 in the USA.
The Economics of Happiness
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Carol Graham, World Economics, September 2005
The economics of happiness is an approach to assessing welfare that combines economists’ techniques with those of psychologists, and relies on more expansive notions of utility than does conventional economics. Research based on this approach highlights the factors—in addition to income—that affect well-being. It is well suited to informing questions in areas where revealed preferences provide limited information, such as the welfare effects of inequality and of macroeconomic policies such as inflation and unemployment. One such question is the gap between economists’ assessments of the aggregate benefits of the globalization process and the more pessimistic assessments that are typical of the general public. The paper summarizes research on some of these questions, and in particular on those relevant to globalization, poverty, and inequality.

Displaying: 1-13 of 13