Sales Managers Indexes



The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

  • The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
  • The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
  • The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
  • The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
  • The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.


Latest SMI releases


GLOBAL: Global Business Activity Improves in May Despite Waning Business Confidence
The Global Headline SMI recovered to 51.1 in May, after slipping to 50.5 in April. The Market Growth Index grew to 51.2 in the month to a 4-month high, and Staffing Levels improved to a 5-month high, both pointing to genuine if modest underlying momentum. Against that, the Business Confidence Index value fell again to 50.5, a 20-month low as the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. Prices inflation moderated, suggesting that the inflationary pressures that characterised much of 2025 are gradually moderating, a development that, if sustained, should support consumer purchasing power and underpin demand conditions through the second half of 2026.
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CHINA: China's Economy Expands in May as Manufacturing Momentum Offsets Fragile Confidence
China's Headline SMI registered 51.2 in May, growing to a 4-month high, sustaining an unbroken run of expansion across the past 12 months. The Sales and Market growth indexes also increased to 4-month highs, and Staffing Levels grew to a 27-month high in May, yet Business Confidence fell simultaneously to a near 3 year low, a paradox that captures the contradictory signals running through China's economy right now. Sales Managers are recording solid results while remaining cautious about the conditions sustaining them, most likely reflecting ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and external demand. That caution has not, however, translated into retrenchment: the breadth of sub-indexes now sitting at multi-month or multi-year highs suggests an economy with more underlying momentum than the confidence reading alone would imply.
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UNITED STATES: US Business Confidence Continues to Fall Amid 5-Months of Job Cuts
The US Headline Sales Managers Index continued below the growth threshold in May, with hiring intentions at their weakest in almost a year. Business Confidence continued to fall in May with a reading of 48.4 and sitting well below its December peak of 51.8. Staffing Levels remained in contraction at 49.2, a reading that has been below or barely at 50.0 for the majority of the past twelve months, pointing to sustained reluctance among US firms to expand headcount.
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INDIA: India’s Business Activity Continues to Expand as Growth Levels Rebound
Both the Sales and Market Growth Indexes improved in May from the dip seen in April, likely caused by shocks associated with the conflict in the Middle East. The May data points to demand conditions that remain strikingly resilient.
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Notes & Methodology

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a global panel of over 4500 companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product for each country/region.

The Sales Managers’ Index results are diffusion indexes which are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that activity has risen ("Increasing") and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed ("Unchanged"). Using half of the "Unchanged" percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. An example of how to calculate a diffusion index: if the response is 40% "Increasing," 40% "Unchanged," and 20% "Reducing," the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates "no change" from the previous month.

The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate "no change" (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity.

Three month Moving Averages are applied to each index to mitigate the effect of seasonal variations and published as the index figures



About the Sales Managers’ Indexes

The Sales Managers’ Indexes are a series of products developed by World Economics which counts panellists in key countries worldwide. Designed to raise the voice and profile of sales people throughout the world, the Sales Managers’ Indexes provide the earliest indication each and every month of the direction of economic activity, and the speed at which its markets are growing.

Sales Managers are unique as an occupational group in being right at the front line of economic activity. The Sales Manager is ideally placed to feel the first few whispers of caution in the market or to see the new green shoots of economic recovery.

The Sales Managers’ Index brings together the collective wisdom of Sales Managers and consequently produces the best and earliest source of understanding about what’s really happening in each economy. The Sales Managers’ Index has been developed by World Economics, a leading edge provider of original economic data.



About the World Economics

World Economics is an organisation dedicated to producing analysis, insight and data relating to questions of importance in understanding the world economy. Its parent company Information Sciences Ltd has a long history of the development of key business information today used throughout the world, including the origination and development of the Purchasing Managers Indexes in China, Japan, India, Europe, America and the UK (now owned by &P Global), and the development of WARC a global information provider for major corporations (now owned by Ascential).