China's Economy Continues Steady Expansion in December

Business Sentiment Grows at a Faster Pace

The First Data on Economic Activity Levels in China - Every Month
The only survey with current month, month-on-month, monthly year-on-year, and forward looking questions
Updated: December 18, 2025

The December Sales Managers Index (SMI) for China indicates that moderate economic expansion is being maintained, with the Headline All-Sector SMI at 51.2, holding well above the critical 50 threshold. This level reflects a broadly stable picture, with gains in business confidence offset by softer pricing power and cuts in staffing levels.

Across all sectors, business confidence improved to a three-month high, signalling renewed optimism about the near-term outlook. Monthly sales growth remained solid, while market growth perceptions eased. The standout shift was a retreat in the Prices Charged Index to a three-month low after November’s multi-year peak, suggesting that the recent surge in pricing power has moderated. Staffing levels edged higher but remained below 50, consistent with cautious employment trends.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

MANUFACTURING SECTOR:
Manufacturing activity strengthened modestly in December, with the sector Headline SMI rising to a three-month high of 51.3. Business confidence reached a three-month high also, and market growth perceptions climbed to their strongest level in 30 months, reflecting growing optimism about order pipelines. Sales growth posted a solid recent high, supported by resilient domestic and export demand. The Prices Charged Index cooled to the lowest level in three-months, while staffing levels improved to but stayed close to neutral. Overall, the Manufacturing sector continues to show signs of gradual recovery driven by inventory cycles and supportive measures.

SERVICES SECTOR:
The services sector recorded a slight softening in December, with the Headline SMI declining to a three-month low of 51.3 while remaining in modest expansion territory. Business confidence rose, providing a positive forward signal. Sales growth eased but held in solid growth territory, and the Staffing Levels Index was unchanged at 50.2, indicating stabilised hiring intentions.

SUMMARY:
December’s SMI readings point to an ongoing phase of quiet stabilisation in the Chinese economy, with the Headline index continuing to hover just above 50 despite a marginal easing. The rebound in business confidence across both manufacturing and services offers encouragement for the outlook into 2026, while the cooling in prices suggests inflationary pressures are receding from recent peaks. Although external challenges remain, the sustained period of modest expansion reflects an economy maintaining a balanced if unspectacular growth path.

Sales Managers Index Components: All-Sectors

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of China growth in recent years.