Brazil's Unsustainable Retiree Burden on its Shrinking Workforce


 
Brazil’s fertility rate has been declining and has been sub-replacement since 2003. Retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. Simultaneously, Brazil’s working-age population has started to shrink. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

Number of Working-Age People to each Dependent (65+) in Brazil
The working-age population represents those aged 15 to 64. Period: 1950-2050.
Brazil



Note: Y axis ratios are expressed as “X : 1,” meaning X working people to every 1 elderly dependent.

In 1950, each Brazilian retiree was supported by 23 people of working age. By 2050, this is projected to have fallen to 2.8. Once enjoying almost triple the worker-to-retiree ratio of the OECD average, Brazil is approaching the same dire ratio by 2050. Adding to this already nightmarish equation is the fact that Brazil has a 63% labour force participation rate. Therefore, these figures overstate the number of workers available to support retirees today. The particular issue for Brazil is that, with this demographic shift, it may become old before it can become rich. Brazil will struggle to achieve the high GDP-per-capita levels that match the developed West due to its falling worker-to-retiree ratio, stymying any ambitions for developed nation status.

More for subscribers:  
See more...The Alarming Cost of Aging Demographics
See more...See more data for Brazil...
See more...See more Fertility Rate data...
See more...See more 'Number of Workers to Each Elderly Dependent' data...



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