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Thought for the day
Global Growth Prospects for 2024: Looking Positive
Last updated: 3 July 2024
World economic activity is starting to look rather buoyant when seen through the lens of economic growth in the world's three largest economies (China, the USA and India measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms), which for most of the recent past have collectively contributed close to 60% of global growth.
Global Business Confidence Index: March
Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Growth')
The Sales Managers Global Business Confidence Index in particular is at a 26 month high with an index reading of 53.2 in March. Business Confidence (or "animal spirits" as the data is sometimes referred to) is crucial to business investment, so the buoyant numbers seen in both February and March are consistent with expectations of significant growth in 2024. In addition, both the important Market and Sales Growth Indexes are also reflecting growth albeit of a somewhat unspectacular nature.
These data provide reasonable indications that the world may avoid the much predicted global recession in 2024, and enjoy at least moderate economic growth through the year.
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Asia Facing Demographic Adversity
Countries in Asia have historically seen some of the highest fertility rates worldwide. In 1970, South Korea’s rate was more than double the replacement threshold. Today, it is far below that level, meaning that each coming generation will be approximately half as large as the one before it. Similarly, major nations such as China and India have seen dramatic falls to rates which are currently also bel...
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Without Migration the Workforce of Many Countries will Dramatically Shrink
Developed countries across the globe have faced falling fertility rates over recent decades. This will continue to shrink the working-age population in these countries. In South Korea, for example, the working-age population is predicted to fall by 18% by the middle of this century. Attempts to reverse this trend have so far proven futile. Out of all the age groups in the population, retirees cost ...
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Worries About the EU Falling Behind the US are Misplaced
There has been much discussion of late by senior EU politicians (President Macron most recently in his much discussed "Europe - It can die " speech) and journalists (notably FT journalist Gideon Rachman, who suggested that American GDP was smaller than that of the EU in 2008, but is now 50% bigger), that the EU is falling far behind America in GDP terms. Such alarmist views stem from the use of th...
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