Global Sales Managers Survey Reflects a Slow Growth World


 
World economic activity grew very modestly in July when seen through the lens of the Sales Managers Indexes for the world's largest economies (China, the USA and India). Part of the reason for the low level of global growth stems from the problems now evident in the USA.

Business Confidence in America has collapsed since the election of President Trump. The chart below, showing Business Confidence in China, the US and India, illustrates the impact of the US President's actions in his first half year in office.

Business Confidence Indices for China and the United States
Diffusion Index: 50 = ’no growth’
Global Sales Managers Survey Reflects a Slow Growth World


For most recent decades China, the USA and India have collectively contributed close to 60% of total global growth, and in reality, probably significantly more, as the "rest of the world" in this case includes many countries with less reliable and often exaggerated data. But given the importance of the USA, the trend of US Business Confidence (the growth inspiring "animal spirits") doesn't suggest the likelihood of a significant rise in global growth over the second half of 2025.

The overall Global Sales Managers Index for July was derived from a good headline performance from India, with an overall SMI reading of 53.2, an improved but still modest contribution from China (an SMI reading of 51.4), and a negative contribution from the USA (an SMI reading of 48.8).


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