Thailand's Unsustainable Retiree Burden on its Shrinking Workforce


 
Thailand’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.2%, and decades of low fertility is now causing the working-age population to fall. Simultaneously, retirees are living longer and forming an ever-larger part of the population. These factors are causing an extraordinary decline in the number of working-age people available to support the expanding number of retirees.

Number of Working-Age People to each Dependent (65+) in Thailand
The working-age population represents those aged 15 to 64. Period: 1950-2050.
Thailand



Note: Y axis ratios are expressed as “X : 1,” meaning X working people to every 1 elderly dependent.

In 1950, each retiree in Thailand was supported by 17 people of working age. By 2050, this is projected to have fallen to 2. Once enjoying a far higher worker-to-retiree ratio than the OECD average, Thailand is projected to have broadly the same dire ratio by 2050. Adding to this already nightmarish equation is the fact that Thailand’s labour force participation rate is 68%. Therefore, these figures overstate the number of workers available to support retirees today. The particular issue for Thailand is that, with this demographic shift, it may become old before it can become rich. Thailand may struggle to achieve the high GDP-per-capita levels achieved by Japan, South Korea and others that match the developed West due to this dire worker-to-retiree ratio, stymying any ambitions for developed nation status.

More for subscribers:  
See more...The Alarming Cost of Aging Demographics
See more...See more data for Thailand...
See more...See more Fertility Rate data...
See more...See more 'Number of Workers to Each Elderly Dependent' data...



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