Thought for the day

The Indian Economy Gathers Speed.
Rapid Growth Now Evident

May Sales Managers Index at 38 month high

27 May 2024
New May data from the Indian Sales Managers Survey reflects economic growth of a high order.

Every growth related component of the Sales Managers Index for May rose.

No fewer than 4 Indexes are now over three year highs.

Overall, the Sales Managers Indexes suggest GDP growth in the second quarter of the year will be significant.

Even the India Price Index produced good news, with a reading of 52.9, way down from the less than desirable April level of 55.2.

Price Inflation is obviously still in evidence in the Indian economy, but may at last be coming under control.

Many companies remain cautious in relation to staffing levels. But even the Jobs moved at last into positive territory over the 50 "no change" level. Clearly a good sign. Confidence may need to rise higher before significant job creation takes place, but the May reading - a 38 month high - can only be described as good news.

In summary, India appears to be emerging, by some way, as the fastest moving of the three growth engines of the global economy. Neither China or the USA are likely to match Indian GDP growth in Q2. There is evidence to suggest that official data does not take sufficient account of the massive problems faced by the very large unofficial informal economy. And consequently official estimates of rapid growth in Indian economic activity do not entirely square with the evident and serious continuing problems of unemployment, particularly among the young. But the "official" non-informal giant Indian economy is clearly on the move again.
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