Thought for the day

US Economy in July: Teetering on the Brink of Recession


 
19 April 2024
 
Business activity indicators all remain close to the 50 "no growth" line. Business Confidence is actually sitting right on the 50 no-growth fence. Both Sales and Market Growth Indexes fell in July, the former just below and the latter just above 50. The Staffing Index rose sharply year-on-year, but remained at a lowly reading of 48.1. The overall Sales Managers Index remained marginally under the 50 no growth line. Prices continue to rise, but at a rapidly diminishing rate, perhaps the most encouraging sign this month

Sales Managers Index Remains Below 50 'no-growth' Level
Headline Sales Managers Index: July 2022
US Economy in July: Teetering on the Brink of Recession

The US economy is very slowly tipping into recession according to the latest (July) data from the Sales Managers Monthly survey.

Sales managers are very much the "front line" in terms of sensitivity to changing business conditions. Sensitive to contractual negotiations being deliberately slowed down.

Sensitive to expected contracts "in the bag" being suddenly cancelled. And most of all sensitive to "budgetary problems" being increasingly cited as reasons for sales negotiations faltering.

All of these conditions are present today in many markets leading to the July Sales Managers Index remaining below the no-growth line. Very little general good news is apparent from the survey, although some sectors of economic activity continue to thrive, and price pressures do at last seem to be moderating. See more data...



More perspectives using World Economics data



Dictators Lie About Economic Growth
Exaggeration, misrepresentation and suppression of economic data is endemic, and not new. Oskar Morgenstern, in his 1950 monograph "On the Accuracy of Economic Observations" made many pithy statements: " ...economic and social statistics are frequently based on deliberate lies " " In totalitarian countries the suppression of statistics is often carried very far " " The undeniable...


Dangerously Misleading Debt Data
Debt poses a serious problem in most developed countries, and in many developing ones. But statistical omission and obfuscation hide the true problem. Rapidly rising numbers of old age dependants plus unfunded pay-as-you-go social security schemes are already causing unrest. More is likely to follow as state backed promises of medical and old age support become impossible to fulfil....


China Contributed 31% of Global Growth Over the Past Decade
Over the past decade China has contributed 31% to global growth, compared with the USA's contribution of 9.6%. Compound Annual Growth over the last 3 years has been 5.8%, almost double the USA rate. Few predict China's growth differential in relation to the USA will disappear in the near future. Source: GDP growth rate estimates derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook Database...