US Sales Managers Index Signals Subdued Growth in November


 
The Headline Sales Managers Index (SMI) for the United States rose marginally from 51.0 in October to 51.1 in November 2025, continuing to signal fragile but positive economic expansion.

The most encouraging development was a strong rise in the Sales Growth Index to 54.1, its highest level in 11 months, suggesting some businesses are already seeing an early start to the crucial holiday shopping season. However, this was partially offset by a notable easing in pricing power and a dip in business confidence below the key 50 threshold.



BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: The Business Confidence Index fell in November, dropping below the 50 no-change mark for the first time in several months. Sales managers expressed growing caution ahead of the holiday season, citing lingering global uncertainties despite relatively stable domestic conditions.

MARKET GROWTH: The Market Growth Index edged higher, remaining in modest expansion territory. The broader trend over the past year continues to show steady but unspectacular growth with no signs of significant acceleration or sharp slowdown.

SALES GROWTH: The standout positive was the Sales Growth Index jumping to 54.1 – its strongest reading in 11 months. This suggests an early uplift from holiday-related spending in some sectors and catch-up activity in others after a softer patch. However, given the fall in confidence and only modest market growth, this surge may prove temporary rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.

PRICES CHARGED: After hitting a two-year peak of 56.8 in October, the Prices Charged Index retreated in November. This cooling provides welcome evidence that the recent intensification of pricing power is easing, likely reflecting reduced supply-chain pressures and moderating input costs. The pullback lowers near-term inflation risks heading into the key retail period.

STAFFING LEVELS: The Staffing Levels Index slipped below the 50 thresholds in November, indicating very slight contraction levels. Companies continue to add staff selectively rather than aggressively expanding payrolls, consistent with the cautious hiring pattern seen throughout 2025.

SUMMARY: November’s SMI confirms that the US economy continues to expand, albeit at a subdued and cautious pace. The clear bright spot is the sharp rise in sales activity, offering hope of a solid holiday season for retailers and related sectors. At the same time, the welcome retreat in pricing pressure and the dip in business confidence below 50 serve as reminders that growth remains fragile and heavily dependent on consumer spending holding up. All main indexes remain close to the 50 threshold, highlighting an economy that is still growing, but only just.


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US Sales Managers Index Signals Subdued Growth in November
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