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Andrew G Haldane
Andrew G. Haldane is Head of Market Infrastructure at the Bank of England. Previous to that he was Head of International Finance at the Bank. He is the author of over 60 articles on monetary policy, international finance and financial stability and the editor of two books—on Targeting Inflation and on Fixing Financial Crises in the 21st Century. He has served as a consultant for a number of international organisations, most recently the International Monetary Fund.

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Andrew G. Haldane
Andrew Haldane is Head of Systemic Risk Assessment at the Bank of England where he is responsible for conducting policy and research on risks to the UK financial system and the Bank’s Financial Stability Report. Prior to that he was Head of International Finance and Head of Market Infrastructure at the Bank. He has written extensively on monetary policy and financial stability issues, including books on inflationtargeting, international financial crises and, most recently, payment systems.

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Günther G. Schulze
Günther G. Schulze is Professor of Economics at the University of Freiburg, Germany. His main research areas are international economics, international environmental economics, and interjurisdictional competition. He is author of The Political Economy of Capital Controls (2000, Cambridge University Press) and editor of International Environmental Economics (2001, Oxford University Press, jointly with Heinrich Ursprung).

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Jeffrey G. Williamson
Jeffrey G. Williamson is the Laird Bell Professor of Economics, Faculty Associate at the Center for International Development, Harvard University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He has twice received the Galbraith Prize for the best teacher in Harvard’s graduate economics program. During 1994–1995 he was President of the Economic History Association. Professor Williamson teaches and does research on economic history and the contemporary Third World. Some topics he has explored recently include: the growth and distributional implications of the demographic transition in Asia 1950–2025 and the Atlantic economy 1820–1940; the impact of international migration, capital flows and trade on factor price convergence in the greater Atlantic economy since 1830; the sources of globalization backlash before World War I; the causes of the cessation of convergence during the de-globalization years between 1914 and 1950; a detailed analysis of both the sources and consequences of the mass migrations prior to the 1920s and after the 1950s; the economic implications of 1492. New research topics include a project establishing a data base and then the exploration of the evolution of world factor prices and living standards since 1820.

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Leslie G. Manison
Leslie G. Manison
Leslie G. Manison is an economist, specialising in macroeconomic policy analysis and international financial relations. He is a former senior economist at the International Monetary Fund, an ex-advisor in the Cyprus Ministry of Finance, and a former senior advisor in the Central Bank of Cyprus.

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M. G. Quibria
M. G. Quibria is currently Advisor, Operations Evaluation Department, Asian Development Bank and was previously Assistant Chief Economist in the research department. He also held teaching and research appointments at Nuffield College, Oxford; Boston University; and ADB Institute. Dr Quibria is the author of many scholarly articles and books. He obtained his MA and Ph.D. degrees in economics from Princeton University.

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M.G. Quibria
M.G. Quibria
M.G. Quibria is currently Professor of International Development at Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD. Previously, he was Assistant Chief Economist and Senior Advisor at the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute, respectively. He also held teaching and research appointments at Nuffield College, Oxford, Boston University and Singapore Management University. Dr Quibria is the author of many scholarly articles and books. He obtained his MA and PhD degrees in economics from Princeton University.

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M.G.Quibria
M.G.Quibria
Muhammad Quibria is currently Professor of International Development at Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD. Previously, he was Assistant Chief Economist and Senior Advisor at the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute, respectively. He also held teaching and research appointments at Nuffield College, Oxford, Boston University and Singapore Management University. Dr Quibria is the author of many scholarly articles and books. He obtained his MA and PhD degrees in economics from Princeton University.

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Richard G. Richels
Richard G. Richels is Director of Global Climate Change Research at the Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, USA, where he studies the economic implications of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. He is active in the Energy Modeling Forum and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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Roger G. Noll
Roger G. Noll
Roger G. Noll is Professor of Economics (emeritus) at Stanford University.

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Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk is Professor of International Economics and Macroeconomics at the Institute of Social Studies (Erasmus University) . His research interests in the field of international economics include economic sanctions, diplomacy, development, competition policy regimes and trade uncertainty. His most recent books include Sustainable Development Goals and Income in Equality (co-edited with Rolph van der Hoeven, Edward Elgar 2017) and Research Handbook of Economic Diplomacy (co-edited with Selwyn Moons, Edward Elgar 2017) Articles have appeared amongst others in Ecological Economics, Journal of Peace Research, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, and World Development. Bergeijk has a Ph.D. in International Economics from Groningen University and a MA in theoretical economics from Erasmus University, where he was a Professor of Economic Policy in the Research Centre for Economic Policy (1998–2004). He was a Visiting Professor in Monetary Policy at the University of Zurich, Switzerland (1999-2001). Bergeijk has been strongly involved in policy making and banking. He served several high ranking functions in economic diplomacy including the Bureau of the OECD’s EPC Working Party 1 (2007-2009), the steering committee of the EU’s ECN chief competition economist network (2004-2006) and the EU’s Monetary Committee (1997-1999). He was a Chief Economist at the Dutch competition authority NMa (2001-2006) and the Directorate General for International Economic relations (2006-2009). Previous positions include Director of the Monetary and Economic Policy department of De Nederlandsche Bank NV (Central Bank) (1997-1999) and Director of UBS Group Economic Research, Zurich, Switzerland (1999-2001).

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Data Quality Rating: GDP China
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World Economics, September 2019
The quality of GDP data in China is improving, and up-to-date in many respects but is still some way from good quality.
Measuring Natural Capital and the Causes of Deforestation
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Brian Sturgess, World Economics, September 2019
This study looks at the measurement of the extent, causes and consequences of deforestation as a depletion of a stock of natural capital, a topic of interest to national statistics offices (NSO) in the preparation of satellite accounts. Currently many anomalies and unresolved issues affect the construction of forest databases, although efforts are currently under way to resolve these data problems. Brazil and Indonesia account for 35% of global forest loss in the sample of countries studied in this paper between 1990 and 2015. This has called beef and palm oil to international attention, especially from environmental activists. The case of Malaysia, where consistent data show that reforestation has followed rising GDP per capita and strong policy on forest management, provides strong empirical support for Forest Transition Theory.
A Statistician’s Ordeal - The Case of Andreas Georgiou
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Miranda Xafa, World Economics, September 2019
For the past eight years Andreas Georgiou has been facing prosecution for the way he discharged his duties while he was president of Greece’s statistical agency (ELSTAT) in 2010-15. His detractors claim that Greece was forced to face harsher conditionality because the deficit was revised upwards, thus helping to justify externally imposed austerity. Despite overwhelming evidence that Mr. Georgiou correctly applied EU rules in revising Greece’s fiscal deficit and debt figures, and despite strong international support for his case, some Greek courts continued the pursuit. The Georgiou case tested the independence of the Greek judiciary, as some senior prosecutors and judges would appear to have repeatedly failed to act in accordance with the rule of law and due process. With a solid majority in parliament, the newly-elected center-right New Democracy government has the opportunity to deliver deep institutional and economic reforms. Ensuring the independence of the judiciary should be a top priority.
China’s Monetary Policy Functions from the Core Inflation Perspective
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Yu Li Zhu & Lu Chang Rong, World Economics, September 2019
Based on the open-economy new Keynesian model, this paper studies the influence of core inflation on the central bank’s monetary policy reaction rules by optimising the multi-target welfare loss functions, and draws three conclusions. Sustainable balance of payments should be considered as a goal rather than a tool for monetary policy. The central bank should focus more on core inflation than normal inflation in its daily operations. An authoritative core inflation sequence should be established as a focal point in the policymaking process. In addition, we emphasise that the central bank should accurately judge the impacts of real exchange rate changes, and adjust how frequently it intervenes in interest rates.
Income Inequality and Foreign Direct Investment in Australia
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Anna Ploszaj, Tarlok Singh & Jen-Je Su, World Economics, June 2019
Income, wealth and consumption are three main factors that determine people’s standard of living. Many organisations in Australia report that in recent years the Australian standard of living has been changing, with some people falling behind. This paper examines the magnitude of and the factors contributing towards the growing income inequality in Australia. The data shows that income inequality, which in Australia in the mid-1990s was around the same level as in other developed countries, has recently outpaced their levels. The data on FDI shows that, at the same time as income inequality was on the rise, the amount of FDI inflows to Australia increased and despite a higher FDI restrictiveness index than the average for OECD countries Australia holds its position in the top ten countries in terms of the preferred destination of FDI.
The European Union Must Defend Andreas Georgiou
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Nicolas Véron, World Economics, March 2019
In August 2010, Andreas Georgiou, former President of the Hellenic Statistical Authority, was charged with having harmed Greece's national interests. In this paper, Nicolas Veron argues that the relentless prosecutions against Georgiou are more than a matter of shameful harassment by Greece. Georgiou’s case also raises disturbing questions about the integrity of European statistical processes. The European Union also needs to consider reforming its statistical framework to ensure a similar scandal cannot recur.
The Comparative Analysis on the Population Control Policies in China and India
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Min-kyung, KIM, World Economics, March 2019
Population is a source of a nations’ strength and national security, but some overpopulated countries in Asia are trying to lower their population growth, even implementing population control policies. This paper conducts a comparative study of China and India to explore the effectiveness of their population control policies, and its findings suggest that education can be one of the strongest methods to curb the population explosion, reducing its side effects by giving Kerala case. This study suggests that further attention must be given to more cases in China and India related to the correlation between the level of education and population growth. Also, the case of Kerala will be needed to be researched more in-depth and yield more concrete recommendations to facilitate an added value to this field.
Saudi Arabian Labour Market Data Outlines the Challenges of Reform
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Brian Sturgess, World Economics, March 2019
Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers approved an ambitious National Transformation Programme (NTP) in June 2016 with the aim of carrying out a complete restructuring of the economy. The implementation of Vision 2030 has major implications for the structure of Saudi Arabia’s labour market with the creation of 1.2 million non-oil private sector jobs, most of which are expected to be taken up by citizens. Official data shows the labour market has a number of distinctive features which will challenge the implementation of Vision 2030: an overreliance on expatriate labour; a preference by nationals for public sector jobs; a gender imbalance; persisting structural unemployment and problems in balancing labour supply and demand. The government is attempting to change the operation and structure of the labour market by a set of policies involving quotas, subsidies, taxes, penalties and the provision of information services, but for a number of reasons change is unlikely to proceed smoothly in the next few years.
The Informal Economy: Who Wins, Who Loses and Why We Care
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Giovanna Maria Dora Dore, World Economics, March 2019
The informal economy is one of the most complex economic and political phenomena of our time. It exists in rich and poor countries alike, and currently employs almost half of the world’s workers, about 1.8 billion people. •At a value of US$10 trillion, the informal economy is the second-largest economy in the world, after the economy of the United States (at US$14 trillion) and before that of China (at US$8.2 trillion). High taxes, labour costs and social security infrastructures, undeclared work and underreporting are among the most powerful drivers of informality. Measures promoting behavioural changes can help counter its growth, even though controls and penalties remain more popular as tools in the fight against the informal economy. The informal sector remains the fastest-growing part of the world economy and we need a better understanding of what it means for business and society and why it is the preferred operating sector for many entrepreneurs.
An Economic Comparison of Greece and Italy
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Theodore Pelagidis, World Economics, December 2018
In Greece and Italy, populist parties have taken power in recent years, a result of coalition between radical left and far-right parties. Both countries are of concern to the European Commission—Greece’s ‘enhanced surveillance’ could end in another bail-out program; Italy is pursuing its budget deficit dispute. Greece and Italy share many economic structural weaknesses in the size of public sector deficits, in the taxation of labour, corporate taxes, and high levels of regulation. Finally, the current and future growth rates of both Greece and Italy are inadequate and the political climate is highly polarized, radical, with no culture of compromising.
CryptoRuble: From Russia with Love
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Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, World Economics, December 2018
A large number of decentralized cryptocurrencies has emerged since the inception of Bitcoin in 2009, with a total market size exceeding $170bn. Recent reports suggest that Russia will issue its government-backed cryptocurrency, CryptoRuble, in the middle of 2019. Russia’s primary goal in issuing a government cryptocurrency is to free its monetary system from the controls exerted by the Federal Reserve and their allied central banks. Government-issued cryptocurrencies will increase: Large sovereign states have the technological know-how and means to do this, but small and/or developing countries may be forced to outsource issuance of their government-backed cryptocurrencies to larger states.
The Seemingly Underappreciated Role of Panel Data in Measuring Poverty and Economic Transformation
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Hai-Anh H. Dang & Calogero (Gero) Carletto, World Economics, September 2018
Panel survey data play a crucial role in producing estimates on welfare dynamics as well as insights into transformation processes in developing economies. Panel survey data are indispensable for effective policy advice for poverty reduction and growth. Fielding and maintaining a good-quality panel survey requires investment in financial and technical resources as well as careful planning, especially in developing countries. Statistical techniques can also be employed to produce estimates on poverty dynamics as an alternative methodology, but a new hybrid approach can combine the advantages of both methods.
Measuring Macroeconomic Performance Using a Composite Index
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Julian Gough, World Economics, September 2018
Large quantities of economic data, varying in accuracy and reliability and subject to later revision, are continually produced and published so interpretation using only one data source is subject to risk. The complex world of data can be simplified by combining different measures of economic performance—economic growth, unemployment and inflation into a single composite index. A composite index of cross-sectional data relating to the economic performance of all of the European Union in 2017 puts Ireland, Romania and Malta in the top three positions, while Germany is ranked 12th. Tracking the UK with the composite index using time-series data shows the impact of the financial crisis in 2008–09 with a gradual improvement in performance which peaks in 2015.
Measuring Illegal Activities in the National Accounts
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Brian Sturgess, World Economics, June 2018
Until 2014 the only illegal activity measured in the UK National Accounts by the Office of National Statistics was the smuggling of alcohol and tobacco. The European System of National Accounts 2010 requires statistical bodies to measure consensual illegal economic activities such as drug consumption and prostitution. In 2014 the first estimates measured the contribution of illegal drugs and prostitution at 2009 prices to UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at just under £10 billion. The estimates are based on a flawed methodology using survey data while private sector figures suggest that the contribution of the cannabis market alone to GDP may be over three times the official value of £828 million .
Debt, Economic Growth and Data Adequacy
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Vighneswara Swamy, World Economics, June 2018
The effects of government debt on economic growth has become of immense importance in the backdrop of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and Reinhart & Rogoff’s related research. This study is based on a sizeable dataset which extends the horizon of analysis to country groupings and makes it inclusive of economic, political, and regional diversities. The study overcomes issues related to data adequacy, coverage of countries, heterogeneity, endogeneity, and non-linear relationships by conducting a battery of robustness tests. An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is found to be associated with a reduction in average growth, but the relationship is nonlinear.
The Financial Crisis and Gender: Assessing Changes in Workforce Participation for Rural India
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Siddhartha K. Rastogi & Pradyun Rame Mehrotra, World Economics, March 2018
Labour market data in India shows female participation declining as GDP has increased, a phenomenon found in other East Asian economies over past two decades. This contradicts empirical observations, which argue over the feminization of the work force due to participation in global export markets, primarily driven by wage efficiency of female labour. The impact of the global financial crisis on female participation rates in rural India in 2009-10 is studied with a cross-state analysis to test theories about female unemployment in a downturn. One of the major findings is that as the formal wage difference between men and women decreases, the female participation gap increases, but more data is needed to identify critical causal factors.
Using Price-Adjusted Income Data to Measure Regional Income Inequality Across the UK
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Julian Gough, World Economics, March 2018
Data for gross disposable household income for each region of the UK are published annually by the Office for National Statistics. The latest provisional data available are for the year 2015. The annual data for household income are in nominal terms only—i.e. they do not allow for differences in prices between regions of the UK, which distorts the results. A reliable deflator to correct the nominal data for differences in inter-regional price levels was derived from the regular survey of prices for calculating the Retail Prices Index, augmented by a special survey of prices of goods and services. When allowing for price level variations between nominal and real household income in different regions the greatest impact is on London. In real terms, household incomes in London are 6% lower than in nominal terms, amounting to a reduction of about £12.4 billion.
Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data
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Amey Sapre & Rajeswari Sengupta, World Economics, December 2017
This paper studies constant price growth estimates of India’s annual GDP data in order to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistics Office. The use of high-frequency indicators to prepare initial estimates overstates the growth of the economy, although at the aggregate level the difference between initial estimates and final revisions is low. At the sectoral level the extent of revision for almost all sectors is large and the magnitude and direction of the revision is unpredictable. The Central Statistical Office must address issues in data quality and revisions by (i) adopting a comprehensive revision policy, (ii) supplying information and data on high frequency indicators and (iii) adopting revision metrics to assess the quality of estimates.
Measuring the Share of Labour in GDP
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Michael Grömling, World Economics, December 2017
There is a view that increasing inequalities in advanced economies are responsible for growth problems and political polarisation. A new impetus has been injected into the analysis of macroeconomic income distribution since if capital’s share is rising this has implications for the personal distribution of income. An international comparison of data from advanced countries does not reveal any widespread or consistent decrease in labour’s share for the past quarter of a century. No pattern is discernible and a number of statistical limitations and data issues need to be taken into account when interpreting the functional distribution of income.
Measuring GDP in Fragile States
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Barbro Hexeberg & Jose Pablo Valdes Martinez, World Economics, December 2017
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is central to measuring economic performance and productivity, and monitoring fiscal and monetary policies, as well as changes in poverty and shared prosperity. Compiling GDP in accordance with internationally agreed definitions and rules is a complex and data-intensive task, but it is especially challenging in fragile countries. Data are often lacking, of poor quality, or out of date. Much economic activity takes place outside the formal economy, and measuring real growth is more difficult for countries facing armed conflict or natural disasters. But fragile states need accurate measures of GDP, because their economic losses are commonly evaluated in terms of GDP prior to the design and implementation of any mitigation policies.

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