Dire Demographics across the Americas


 
The Americas have seen some of the sharpest downturns in fertility rates globally from 1970 to the present. The rate in Mexico, Chile and Jamaica, for example, has fallen threefold across that period and is now below the replacement threshold. Most countries across the Americas are now also below the replacement threshold. This means population growth will stagnate creating, in turn, more elderly demographics. It is probable that in the specific areas of Latin America and the Caribbean, women’s access to contraception – and, subsequently, their ability to plan their families – has been central to this plummet in fertility rates since 1970.

Fertility Rates in the Americas 1950-2050
Data is ranked on lowest population fertility rates by 2025.

Country

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Chile

4.84

3.18

2.05

1.17

0.81

Canada

3.37

1.80

1.51

1.26

0.84

Bahamas, The

4.52

3.42

2.06

1.31

0.81

Jamaica

3.92

4.44

2.35

1.32

0.84

Brazil

6.12

4.42

2.25

1.49

0.79

Uruguay

2.69

3.02

2.20

1.51

1.44

Colombia

6.41

4.40

2.57

1.53

0.84

United States

3.09

1.82

2.03

1.56

1.20

Argentina

3.16

3.27

2.59

1.67

1.73

Mexico

6.71

5.74

2.71

1.79

1.02

Peru

6.94

5.71

2.85

1.87

1.11

Country

1950

2000

2025

2050

Chile

4.8

2.0

1.2

0.8

Canada

3.4

1.5

1.3

0.8

Bahamas, The

4.5

2.1

1.3

0.8

Jamaica

3.9

2.3

1.3

0.8

Brazil

6.1

2.2

1.5

0.8

Uruguay

2.7

2.2

1.5

1.4

Colombia

6.4

2.6

1.5

0.8

United States

3.1

2.0

1.6

1.2

Argentina

3.2

2.6

1.7

1.7

Mexico

6.7

2.7

1.8

1.0

Peru

6.9

2.8

1.9

1.1
Source: World Economics Population Database, 2025




Women in developed countries such as the United States and Canada already had widely accessible contraceptives at earlier dates. Therefore, their declines have been less prominent. Still, both developed nations have seen their rate decline below the replacement threshold from 1970 to 2025. This will create more elderly demographics. One projection sees the proportion of Americans over the age of 65 rising to nearly a third of the population by 2100 – it was 17% in 2021. This will create a top-heavy generational pyramid which will naturally put great strain on health care and old age support systems, accentuated by the shrinkage in people of working-age.
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