The improvement was broad-based, with gains across most components, reflecting growing optimism and continued solid consumer spending through the peak holiday period.

Business confidence rebounded in December, climbing back above the 50 no-change level after dipping below in November. Sales managers report being more upbeat about the near-term outlook going into 2026.

The overall growth picture brightened modestly, with the Market Growth Index reaching a three-month high while staying comfortably in expansion territory whilst the monthly Sales Index continued to build on November’s encouraging uplift, pushing the index to its highest level in over a year. This sustained strength reflects steady demand across all sectors and indicates that overall activity held up more firmly than expected through the fourth quarter.

Price inflation also picked up again, returning toward recent peaks after the temporary cooling seen in November. The renewed rise indicates that firms are regaining some ability to pass on costs, though the increase appears measured rather than aggressive, consistent with supply conditions that remain generally supportive.

Jobs levels showed welcome improvement, moving clearly back into growth territory and recording an eleven-month high. Companies are adding headcount at a healthier clip, reflecting greater willingness to expand capacity amid the brighter demand signals.

Overall, December’s SMI data paints a picture of a US economy gaining modest traction, with the holiday season delivering a timely boost to sales and confidence. All key indexes now sit more comfortably above the 50 thresholds than in recent months, suggesting that growth is becoming less fragile. While the pace remains far from robust, the broad-based gains provide grounds for cautious optimism heading into 2026.


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