Global Economy Maintains Steady Growth in October

The First Data on Global Economic Activity Levels - Every Month
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Updated: October 22, 2025

The Global Sales Managers Index (SMI) for October reached 51.5, signalling modest global economic expansion. A surge in the Prices Charged Index to 53.5, a three-month high, underscores intensifying cost pressures as the primary driver, fuelled by trade disruptions and input cost increases. Steady sales and recovering staffing levels support growth, though cautious confidence and ongoing geo-political challenges persist. The Global SMI data reflects a resilient economy navigating US-China trade tensions and the US government shutdown.

Note: Data Shown as a Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change', above 50 = Increasing growth, below 50 = Declining growth)

Business Confidence: At 52.5, confidence remains cautious, reflecting trade uncertainties. India and China sustain optimism, while US sentiment (51.4) is tempered by domestic and trade challenges.

Sales Growth: The Sales Growth Index increased to 53.1, showing steady demand. China’s strong sales (54.3) and India’s consistent performance drive this, offsetting softer US demand (51.4).

Prices Charged: The Prices Charged Index rose to 53.5, indicating increasing inflationary pressures. Higher costs from US tariffs on Chinese goods and elevated energy and food prices are being passed to consumers, particularly in manufacturing and retail. This aligns with global core inflation trends around 2.9% year-over-year, posing risks to demand if sustained.

Regional Contributions:

• US: Lags with fragile growth (SMI: 51.0), constrained by the government shutdown and tariff-driven cost increases. Modest sales (51.4) and staffing gains (50.5) limit its global impact.
• China: Contributes significantly through manufacturing strength (SMI: 51.1) and solid services SMI (51.4). Strong sales (54.3) reflect domestic stimulus, despite tariff pressures impacting confidence (52.5).
• India: Leads global growth with strong sales and market indices, driven by infrastructure spending and consumer demand. Its robust performance continues to anchor global expansion.

Summary: October’s Global SMI of 51.5 reflects steady growth, led by solid sales growth and rising prices charged. China and India drive momentum, while the US contributes minimally amid trade and domestic challenges. Rising costs pose a key risk to sustained global growth.

Sales Managers Index Components

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About the Sales Managers Indexes

The Sales Managers' Indexes provide the earliest monthly data on the speed and direction of economic activity in key growth areas of the world.

The SMI’s (Sales Managers’ Indexes) are compiled and analysed by World Economics and are based on survey data collected from a panel of companies stratifying all Industry Classification Board (ICB) sectors which are weighted to reflect their contribution to national Gross Domestic Product.

Key advantages of the SMI's:

• The SMI's provide the first indication each month of the speed and direction of economic growth.
• The SMI's provide the most complete indication of growth, covering all private sector activity.
• The SMI's are based on a key occupational group - sales executives - uniquely able to sense accurate changes in business activity levels.
• The SMI survey base - salespeople - are used by virtually all businesses, including in frontier markets, unlike other occupational groups.
• The SMI's focus on the key countries contributing to over 60% of global growth in recent years.