30% of Countries at Risk of Half-Sized Generations


 
If current trends continue, 30% of countries will have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.0 or less by 2050. The replacement threshold required to stabilise a population is 2.1. These low TFRs, at 1 or below, would create successive generations which are half or less the size than that of the previous generation.

Top 10 Countries With Lowest Fertility Rates
By 2050
30% of Countries at Risk of Half-Sized Generations
30% of Countries at Risk of Half-Sized Generations





Note: Ranked by lowest projected fertility rate in 2050.

The continued fall in TFRs is likely to cause depopulation trends in many countries. Depopulation is already evident in the Republic of Korea (beginning in 2009), Italy (2014), Russia (2019), Japan (2020), China (2021), Czechia (2023), Germany (2023), Spain (2023), Poland (2023) and France (2025).

More for subscribers:  
See more...Population Fertility Rate Data
See more...Population by Size Data
See more...Population Growth Rates Data

Take a Trial to Continue Reading...

Unlock all insights, data tables, and tools.

Register now



More perspectives using World Economics data

The Cost of Aging Societies Across the EU
The Cost of Aging Societies Across the EU
In 2024, over half of social protection spending in the EU went on the ‘old age’ category. This is equivalent to 11.4% of the combined GDP of the EU. Largely constituted by pensions, spending on this ‘old age’ category has been rising over recent years. Note: 2024 spending is an estimate. From 2014 to 2024, it is estimated that expenditure on the ‘old age’ category will have risen by over 5...
Germany's Demographic Dilemma
Germany
The core problem facing the German Chancellor is the unsustainable financial structure of the country's social security, driven by a shrinking working-age population and the simultaneous retirement of the large baby-boomer generation. Germany operates a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system, meaning current workers fund current retirees. This model worked when the worker-to-pensioner ratio was high (e.g...
Global Economy Shows Renewed Momentum in November
Global Economy Shows Renewed Momentum in November
The Global Sales Managers Index (SMI) for November rose to 51.7, indicating a modest acceleration in global economic expansion compared to October’s level. The improvement was led by a sharp rebound in Sales Growth to 54.1, the highest reading in over 4 years, alongside the strongest Market Growth Index in eight months. Pricing pressures eased slightly, while staffing levels and profit margins remaine...