Depopulation Trend Emerging in 38% of Countries: | World Economics

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Depopulation Trend Emerging in 38% of Countries

Due to declining fertility rates, with half of all countries being below the replacement threshold, it is projected that over a third of countries will see their population shrink overall during the period to 2050.

Largest Estimated Declines in Population
Millions, 2025 - 2050

Country	Population 2025	Population 2050		Decline 2025-2050	% Decline 2025-2050
China	1,412.9M	1,173.2M		-239.6M	-17%
Japan	122.9M	98.3M		-24.6M	-20%
Russia	143.7M	126.1M		-17.6M	-12%
Brazil	212.2M	201.0M		-11.2M	-5%
Germany	83.9M	73.2M		-10.7M	-13%
Italy	59.0M	48.6M		-10.5M	-18%
Thailand	71.4M	61.5M		-9.9M	-14%
Korea, Rep.	51.5M	42.1M		-9.5M	-18%
Ukraine	38.9M	29.6M		-9.3M	-24%
Poland	38.1M	30.6M		-7.4M	-19%

Country		Decline 2025-2050	% Decline 2025-2050
China		-239.6M	-17%
Japan		-24.6M	-20%
Russia		-17.6M	-12%
Brazil		-11.2M	-5%
Germany		-10.7M	-13%
Italy		-10.5M	-18%
Thailand		-9.9M	-14%
Korea, Rep.		-9.5M	-18%
Ukraine		-9.3M	-24%
Poland		-7.4M	-19%

Source: World Economics Population Database, 2025

The sum of the top ten largest declines (listed in the table above) totals 350 million.

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