Thought for the day

Global Economic Growth Engines Remain Mired in Stagflation


 
Last updated: 3 July 2024
 
Global recession looms as price inflation, the war in Europe, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to impact on the three biggest growth drivers of global economic activity.


Monthly research for the Global Sales Managers Index covers China, the USA and India. Together over the past decade, these three countries accounted for almost 60% of global economic growth. None are proving immune to the serious problems now weighing heavily on global economic activity.

The latest growth related elements of the Global Sales Managers Index show that the world economy is at best going nowhere, and at worst heading back into recession, as price inflation remains high, war in Europe drags on damaging global energy and food supplies; and geopolitical uncertainty ranging from China's intentions towards Taiwan to increasing fears of climate change, remains very present.

As a consequence, the overall Sales Managers Index remains below the 50m. The overall Sales Managers Index remains below the crucial 50 "no change" level.

Staffing and Profit levels remain a long way below those seen a year ago, and Business confidence (that business activity will improve over the next few months) remains fragile, only fractionally over the 50 level.

The (only) good news is that the Price Index, although rising compared with the levels recorded in August, remains way below the extraordinarily high levels recorded during the peak Covid period, suggesting that supply problems may be slowly resolving as business adjusts to the severe problems faced over the past two years.  See more data...



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