Global Economic Growth Remains Marginal, But Business Confidence Is Rising:

Global Economic Growth Remains Marginal, But Business Confidence Is Rising

The threat of global recession remains evident in the November Sales Managers Survey data. Three out of four growth related indexes fell, and two out of the group are now in negative territory, below the "no change" 50 mark, reflecting difficult current conditions. Continuing price inflation, the war in Europe, geopolitical uncertainty, and the lingering problems of covid all continue to impact on the three biggest growth drivers of global economic activity (China, the USA and India), albeit in different ways.

Global Business Confidence Index
Diffusion Index. (50 = 'No Change')

Global Economic Growth Remains Marginal, But Business Confidence Is Rising

But one Sales Index - that of Business Confidence that the next few months will bring better conditions - is rising, positive in all three countries, and globally now at a 9 month high. Many economists believe that Business Confidence, or "Animal Spirits" as it is sometimes called, is often a key self-fulfilling factor in generating economic growth. When business people are optimistic in relation to future conditions, they are more likely to invest. So the simultaneous rise of optimism in China, India (a 32 month high), and the USA suggests that many Sales Managers believe that recession can be avoided, and conditions are likely to improve in early 2023.
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