Global Growth Likely Grinding to a Halt

China and the US Report Poor Sales Numbers in July


 
The threat of global recession in the second half of 2023 has returned, as July Sales Managers Survey data shows the USA and China both treading water, as interest rate pressures mount. The Indian economy continues to grow but is much smaller than the two mega engines of the US and China that have propelled global economic activity so far, and so fast, for so long.

The big three (China, the USA and India) together have provided close to 60% of all global growth over the past decade, so their steady recovery from the dire straits of Covid has been good news. However, growth overall has been modest in 2023 to date, particularly in China, previously the biggest contributor. And rapid (and in many cases unexpected) rises in interest rates are now causing problems in many sectors and countries.


It is too early to suggest that global economic recession is about to envelop the world. But there is no doubt that China has been the primary motor of global growth over the past four decades, so the current very hesitant revival of economic activity in China is inevitably a negative sign for growth expectations for the remainder of 2023.

With signs of weakness now also emerging in the USA (the Business Confidence Index registered a large fall in confidence about the rest of the 2023, and all growth-related indexes fell in July), and even the fast growing Indian economy faltering, the prospects for the second half of 2023 are clearly dimming.

The good news is that price inflation is coming down to more normal levels, and should assist in rebuilding confidence in the financial markets.

Continue reading for more analysis, charts & data. [SUBSCRIBER ONLY]

Take a Trial to Continue Reading...

Unlock all insights, data tables, and tools.

Register now



More perspectives using World Economics data

Israeli Governance Downgraded
Israeli Governance Downgraded
Israel’s rating has declined on the World Economics Governance Index over the past decade. The Governance Index data determines the Governance grading of countries. Consequently, Israel currently attains a B-grade in 2025. More for subscribers:   See more data for Israel... See more data for Asia... See more Governance Ratings data... Read: Places for In...
Europe’s Combined GDP is far Larger than Russia's
Europe’s Combined GDP is far Larger than Russia
Americas support for Ukraine is no longer certain. What guarantee does Europe have of containing Russia without the big guns of the USA? It is said (attributed to George Bernard Shaw and many others) that God always favours the big battalions in war, meaning that whoever has the greatest resources is likely - sooner or later - to triumph over the many other factors that can play a part. If this is th...
Japanese Birth Rate to Fall Below Lowest Forecasts
Japanese Birth Rate to Fall Below Lowest Forecasts
The birth rate in Japan is estimated to have fallen even further in 2025 than the government’s worst forecasts. Based on data from the first 10 months of 2025, the number of births is likely to have dropped below the 670,000 figure of 2024 (which excludes children born to foreign residents). This would be the lowest level since government records began. This falling birth rate will mean Japan’s Total ...