The possibility of global recession in the fourth quarter of 2023 remains, as the all sector Sales Managers Survey data for the three great growth engines of economic activity (China, the USA and India) remain mired in relatively lowly numbers, and are still seen as fragile as interest rates continue to be raised to keep downward pressure on price inflation. The Indian economy continues to grow faster than is the case for China and the US, but is much smaller than the two mega engines of the US and China that have propelled global economic activity so far, and so fast, for so long.

It's also too early to suggest that the threat of global recession is receding, as interest rate increases can exert a powerful downward influence on economic growth, particularly in a world grown suspicious of global trade and is increasingly tied up in a great variety of politically inspired sanctions.

But there is no doubt that China has been the primary motor of global growth over the past four decades, so the current very hesitant but increasingly positive revival of service sector economic activity in China is likely to be an encouraging sign for growth expectations for the remainder of 2023 and beyond.