Ireland, not Libya, is the Fastest Growing Country with Believable Economic Data


 
Investors may be surprised to learn that Libya currently tops the list of fastest growing countries. Calculations based on IMF data show Libya having a reported GDP compound growth rate of 14% over the past decade, a surprising 23.3% over the past 5 years, and an astonishing 25% over the past 3 years.

All this is in a country riven by violent political activity for many years, and to which many Governments advise their citizens to avoid all travel, (and to get out by any means possible if you are already there). Other countries of a not entirely dissimilar nature, like Haiti, also feature near the top the list of places with the fastest GDP growth.

One common factor is shared by almost all of the countries in the top twenty ''fastest growing" list. World Economics produce a ranking of countries by GDP growth, which includes a ranking of GDP by GDP data quality (see below). One aspect of the data stands out very clearly, and explains the position of Libya, Haiti and the rest: most of the countries in the list have poor quality (Grades C and D) GDP data.

GDP Compound Annual Growth Rates
Ireland, not Libya, is the Fastest Growing Country with Believable Economic Data
Ireland, not Libya, is the Fastest Growing Country with Believable Economic Data





All of the top 5 fastest growing countries (based on IMF data) have D rated data, which is for all practical purposes unusable. The position of Libya and others in this table is explicable only by the presence of economic data which is almost certainly misleading, either by error or design. The method used by World Economics to rate GDP data quality can be found here. The only country in the top 10 fastest growing county list with A grade data is Ireland. China and Rwanda are the only other countries in the top 20 with reasonable (B grade) data. And recent action by the Chinese Government to stop publication of many economic data series used to provide a cross check on GDP accuracy may indicate a fall in the quality of Chinese data. Ireland also has a very high GDP per capita rating, and a very high (in 12th place globally) World Economics Governance rating. The conclusion to be drawn from this is that investors, aid providers and other interested parties should check carefully the provenance of any GDP data used in decision making processes...

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