For most recent decades these three countries have collectively contributed close to 60% of total global growth, and in reality, probably significantly more, as the "rest of the world" in this case includes many countries with less reliable and often exaggerated data.

In any event, if the survey results from these three countries collectively are suggesting that a small recovery is underway, the threat to global trade from the Trump Tariffs may be less of a problem than feared.

The overall Sales Managers Indexes for all three countries are in fact now back over the 50 "no growth" line, suggesting that the retreat by the US Government from the most punitive tariff levels initially threatened has allowed most economic activity (to date) to continue largely unabated. The Staffing Indexes in China remain the exception to this tale of modest recovery, and continue to suggest a lot of caution remains in China in relation to business expansion, while the threat of giant tariff's remains unresolved.

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