Stagflation Bedevils Global Economic Growth Engines in October


 
The threat of global recession continues to remain evident in the October Sales Managers Survey data, despite significant growth in the US. Price inflation, the war in Europe, a sharp fall in growth levels in China, and the lingering problems of covid all continue to impact on the three biggest growth drivers of global economic activity, albeit in very different ways.


Monthly research for the Global Sales Managers Index covers China, the USA and India. Together over the past decade, these three countries accounted for around 40% of Global GDP and almost 60% of global economic growth. None are proving immune to the serious problems now weighing heavily on global economic activity.

Of the three economies, the USA is clearly in growth mode, but is also the worst affected by price inflation. As long as inflation remains dangerously high, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to attempt to dampen growth via interest rate increases. China, now the biggest of the three economies in Purchasing Power Parity terms, remains hamstrung by Covid lockdowns. And India, although showing signs of post covid economic revival, is still a long way from the rumbustious growth of pre Covid days.

The good news is that the Global Price Index, although rising compared with the levels recorded in September, remains way below the extraordinarily high levels recorded during the peak Covid period, suggesting that supply problems may be slowly resolving as business adjusts to the severe problems faced over the past two years.
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