The Chinese Economy Continues to Grow,
Largely Due to a Buoyant Services Sector


 
The Manufacturing sector of the Chinese economy remains in the doldrums. The June reading of the overall Sales Managers Index for Manufacturing continued below the 50 "no growth" line. The (modestly) good news is that all three months of the second quarter survey registered an improvement on quarter 1 readings.

The (larger) Services sector survey continues to reflect much greater optimism, and real growth in economic activity. Overall the surveys suggest that the Chinese economy continues to slowly regain its previously healthy levels of economic growth, despite the drag of the less than buoyant Manufacturing sector.


The marked difference between the Chinese Services and Manufacturing sectors performance continues to remain in evidence. But overall the latest June Sales Managers Survey shows the economy as a whole is now slowly waking up after its period of relative inactivity.

Over the whole of the first half of 2024 the overall Manufacturing Sector Sales Managers Index remained below the crucial 50 index level, indicating declining output. In contrast the Services Sector overall Sales Managers Index remained at an average index reading over the first half of the year of 52.4, indicating significant real growth.

The now dominant Services sector's resilience provided enough impetus to ensure that the combined Manufacturing + Services sector Index remained over the 50 no growth level, with a quarter 1 reading of 50.9, indicating overall albeit modest growth in the Chinese economy. The second quarter showed a small improvement with the second quarter index at just over 51.

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