Signs of a setback in US economic growth emerged in July. After a buoyant series of index readings in the second quarter of 2024, July saw a significant trend reversal, particularly in the Business Confidence, and Market Growth Indexes. Whilst modest overall growth appears set to continue, at least in the third quarter of the year, it may be that the negative impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors is slowly working through into economic activity.

Until July many sectors of the American economy seemed to be largely untroubled by the anti-inflationary rises in interest rates, and the growing shadow of disturbing global political change. However, the evidence presented by the July Sales Managers Survey suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes may at last be having restraining impact on the "animal spirits" so important to continuing growth in economic activity levels.