India review of economic, population and ESG data by World Economics

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India

Updated: November 2022.

Key Insights

India's GDP is significantly understated in most investment commentaries.
The understatement results from poor quality data and price measurement.
India accounted for 15% of global growth over the last decade, and is now probably the third biggest country in GDP terms.
It is likely that India's GDP will overtake the United States within a decade to become the worlds number 2 economy.

ECONOMY SIZE

India's economy has grown rapidly over the past decade reshaping the world economy, as shown in the chart below.

Percentage Share of Global GDP: 1990-2030
Using 10-year CAGR for projections

When measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms, including estimates for its vast informal economy, and adjustments for outdated base year measures, India's GDP is the third largest in the world.

Gross Domestic Product
Ranked by GDP

Country Extract of country GDP by Size See full interactive table	GDP PPP (Billions)	GDP Data Quality Grade	Share of Global GDP %

China	$30,290	B	18.4%
United States	$22,522	A	13.6%
India	$15,518	C	9.4%
Japan	$5,640	A	3.4%
Russia	$5,540	C	3.4%
Germany	$4,890	A	3.0%
Indonesia	$4,519	B	2.7%
Brazil	$4,167	B	2.5%
Turkey	$3,487	B	2.1%
France	$3,449	A	2.1%

Access the interactive all country GDP by Size table

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Massive Changes Already Seen in Relative Sizes of Major Countries Expected to Continue

GDP Data Quality

India's GDP data is classed as C grade in the World Economics Data Quality Rating scale. Essentially not to be trusted. Read more...
Main failings are outdated Base Year data and SNA data; a vast largely unmeasured Informal / Shadow economy data; insufficient resources devoted to measuring economic activity (a nightmarish task even if fully resourced); and a high level of corruption.
Adding in World Economics estimates for the Informal economy , updated Base year and SNA improves the quality of the data to an extent that makes it useful for intercountry comparison. But lack of statistical resources and high corruption makes it necessary to be cautious in any analysis.

Data Quality Ratings
Index: 0 = Extremely poor quality, 100 = Good as it gets

Country Extract of country table See full interactive version	Data Quality Index	Data Quality Grade	Base Year	SNA Version	Informal Economy %	Resoucres Index	Corruption Index

Bosnia and Herzegovina	65.8	C	Chained	1993	33.0	60.0	35
Argentina	65.6	C	2004	2008	27.3	78.9	38
Uganda	65.1	C	2010	2008	34.4	71.1	27
Tajikistan	64.7	C	Chained	1993	37.1	72.2	25
Egypt	64.4	C	2016	1993	34.8	82.2	33
Paraguay	64.4	C	2014	2008	46.5	65.6	30
India	63.9	C	2011	2008	52.4	76.7	40
Uruguay	63.5	C	2005	1993	31.7	80.0	73
Vietnam	63.5	C	2010	1993	20.5	74.4	39
Peru	63.4	C	2007	2008	42.2	80.0	36
Nicaragua	63.2	C	Chained	2008	52.5	46.7	20
Kenya	63.0	C	2009	2008	32.6	57.8	30
Benin	62.7	C	Chained	1993	48.8	62.2	42
Ecuador	62.4	C	2007	2008	37.2	65.6	36

Access the interactive all country Data Quality Ratings table

Key:
Data Quality Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Poor, 100 = Excellent.

Resources Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Low level of resources, 100 = High level of resources.

Corruption Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = High corruption, 100 = Low corruption.

Grade definitions:
         A: As good as it gets;
         B: Use with caution;
         C: Unreliable for many purposes
         D: Extremely poor quality.

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ECONOMIC GROWTH

The Indian economy expanded rapidly over the past decade. Of all the major economies, only China grew faster.

India's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last 10-years

Country Extract of country CAGR See full interactive table	Global Rank:	GDP Data Quality: Grade	CAGR 10 Year: 2011-2021	CAGR 5 Year: 2016-2021	CAGR 3 Year: 2018-2021	Global Growth Share: Percentage

Uzbekistan	16	C	5.9%	4.9%	4.9%	0.3%
Cambodia	17	D	5.6%	4.0%	1.9%	0.1%
Nepal	18	D	5.6%	7.5%	7.6%	0.2%
Vietnam	19	C	5.6%	5.3%	4.1%	1.1%
Tanzania	20	C	5.6%	5.0%	4.2%	0.3%
Niger	21	D	5.6%	4.6%	3.7%	0.1%
Congo, Dem. Rep	22	D	5.5%	4.3%	3.9%	0.2%
India	23	C	5.4%	3.7%	1.8%	14.7%
Kenya	24	C	5.4%	5.2%	5.0%	0.4%
Senegal	25	C	5.3%	5.1%	3.9%	0.1%
Benin	26	C	5.3%	5.9%	5.8%	0.1%
Burkina Faso	27	D	5.3%	5.3%	4.6%	0.1%
Ghana	28	B	5.3%	5.6%	4.5%	0.3%
Turkey	29	B	5.1%	4.7%	4.5%	3.2%
Malta	30	A	5.1%	4.1%	2.4%	0.0%

Access the interactive all country CAGR table

Between 2011 and 2021 India accounted for almost 15% of all global economic growth, again second only to China.
In recent years India's GDP growth has slowed, partly due to the impact of covid.

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WEALTH

As a country with relatively low GDP Quality Ratings any measure of wealth based on GDP per capita must necessarily be treated with great caution.
Making allowance for the major data deficiencies via the quarterly World Economics reviews of those aspects that can be uprated, produces a picture of rapid GDP per capita growth (albeit from a very low base) that should not be regarded as a precise measure. But growth has clearly been fast in relation to most other major countries.

India's GDP Per Capita Growth: 25 Years
Index: 1996 = 100

India per capita GDP remains low in relation to other Asia-Pacific and Emerging Market countries, as shown in the following table.

GDP Per Capita
Ranked by GDP per Capita

Country Extract of country GDP per capita See full interactive table	GDP Per Capita PPP (Int$)	GDP per Capita Data Quality Grade

Algeria	$12,883	B
Moldova	$12,857	B
El Salvador	$12,776	C
Guatemala	$12,441	B
Jordan	$12,385	B
Philippines	$11,487	B
Vietnam	$11,426	C
India	$11,137	C
Laos	$11,062	C
Angola	$11,034	D
Uzbekistan	$10,106	C
Morocco	$9,904	B
Nigeria	$9,148	D
Honduras	$9,139	D
Mauritania	$8,816	D

Asia-Pacific Average	$29,180	-
Emerging Markets Average	$38,310	-

Access the interactive all country GDP per Capita table

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Indian Living Standards Soar in the Last Twenty-Five Years

INEQUALITY

The Inequality rankings for India (based on Gini 2011 data) indicate that a relatively large percentage of national income falls into the hands of relatively few of the 1.4 billion population.
Wealth is usually better measured by the distribution of capital (in the form of property, companies and financial assets) than by income alone. Any income based index will probably understate true levels of inequality.
Many attempts have been made to shed better light on inequality by the production of asset based estimates, to put alongside income based ones. But to date no widely accepted index is seen as a universal global addition to income based estimates.
World Economics is currently researching better ways of measuring Inequality, using India as a benchmark, but for the moment data is both old and in short supply.

Global Inequality Rankings
Index: 0-100, 0 = High Inequality; 100 = High Equality

Country Extract of country Inequality See full interactive table	Global Rank	Inequality Index	Poverty % of Population

United Kingdom	66	44.3	-
Nigeria	67	44.3	53.5%
Uzbekistan	68	44.0	-
Liberia	69	44.0	40.9%
Burkina Faso	70	44.0	-
Luxembourg	71	43.8	-
Vietnam	72	43.3	1.9%
India	73	43.3	21.2%
Sierra Leone	74	43.3	40.1%
Lithuania	75	43.3	-
Romania	76	43.2	-
Georgia	77	43.0	4.5%
Italy	78	43.0	-
Gambia	79	43.0	10.1%
Yemen, Rep.	80	41.7	18.8%

Access the interactive all country Inequality table

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DEBT

India's is officially reported as having a debt-to-GDP ratio of 84.2% by the IMF. World Economics estimates the Debt-to-GDP ratio to be in reality, a much lower 50.3%. This is due to missing elements in official Indian data, notably the vast informal economy, and the use of outdated base years. (See Data Quality and GDP Size sections above for more information).
The higher level of GDP used in our calculations produces a lower level of Debt-to-GDP. The recalculated level of debt is much lower than the average for developed countries, but a little higher than the Emerging Markets average.

Debt-to-GDP Ratio for Emerging Market Countries
Ranked by % of GDP

Country Extract of country debt See full interactive table	Region	Global Rank	Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Costa Rica	Americas	45	53.9%
Algeria	Africa	46	53.7%
Australia	Asia-Pacific	47	53.1%
Ghana	Africa	48	53.0%
Pakistan	Asia-Pacific	49	52.3%
Morocco	Africa	50	52.3%
Gambia	Africa	51	51.3%
India	Asia-Pacific	52	50.3%
Ireland	Europe	53	49.2%
Malaysia	Asia-Pacific	54	48.6%
Colombia	Americas	55	48.5%
Congo, Rep.	Africa	56	48.3%
South Africa	Africa	57	48.2%
Namibia	Africa	58	47.7%
Netherlands	Europe	59	47.5%

Asia-Pacific Average		&NBSP;	52.5%
Emerging Markets Average		&NBSP;	45.4%

Note:
The debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio between a country's total outstanding debt of central government and its gross domestic product (GDP).

With United States interest rates rising rapidly, many poor countries facing financial problems of one sort or another, and familiar worries of another emerging market crisis being voiced, it might be thought that India could be facing something of a problem.
But a lot has changed since previous financial panics involving emerging markets. For a start India and China (together with some other Emerging Market countries) are now far more important players in the world economy than was the case twenty or thirty years ago.

India now accounts for 9.4% of global GDP, compared with just 5.6% in 2000
% Share of global GDP

India's finances are as a consequence , much more robust and domestically contained than was previously the case .

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Debt-to-GDP Ratio

POPULATION

India has conducted a decennial Census since 1872, so understands the importance of these data, and is very experienced in their collection. However, with such a huge population and geographic area to try to document, the job is far from easy. The next census, delayed by Covid, is due to be conducted in 2023, and it is likely to show that India has overtaken China as the world's most populous country.
As well as having the largest population, India also has one of the youngest, with more than half of the population aged below 25. This could produce what is often referred to as a "demographic dividend", with more people adding to a country's workforce, as well as assisting a drift from the countryside to cities and higher productivity activities, contributing to GDP growth. However productive activities must also emerge to take advantage of this situation. Lots of unemployed young people can also provide a recipe for social unrest...

India's Population Breakdown

Country Extract of country Population See full interactive table	Population Size (Millions)	Median Age (Years)	Age Dependency (Young)	Age Dependency (Old)	Age Dependency (Total)

China	1,444.2	38.4	25.2%	17.0%	42.2%
India	1,393.4	28.4	38.9%	9.8%	48.7%
United States	332.9	38.3	28.3%	25.6%	53.9%
Indonesia	276.4	29.7	38.3%	9.2%	47.5%
Pakistan	225.2	22.8	57.2%	7.1%	64.4%
Brazil	214.0	33.5	29.7%	13.8%	43.5%
Nigeria	211.4	18.1	80.9%	5.1%	86.0%
Bangladesh	166.3	27.6	39.3%	7.7%	47.0%
Russia	145.9	39.6	27.8%	23.5%	51.2%

Access the interactive all country Population table

It is likely that India will continue to be one of the world's primary drivers of global economic growth over the next decade, with its giant population, much of which remains outside formal work, and potential for rapid productivity increases providing a strong base from which to expand.

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ENVIRONMENT

India is the 4th worst polluter in the world on the World Economics Emissions Index.
But (illustrating perfectly the difficulty of assessing who is to blame for pollution, and who should take action to limit it) on a per capita basis, India is a much smaller polluter, falling to 31st place in the overall listing.
Given that the developed countries of the world became wealthy largely by virtue of using carbon intensive energy sources over many years , it is clear that the chief culprits in assessing blame for today’s pollution levels are not those like India currently high up the list, but with low per capita ratings.

Environmental Factors
Index: 0 = High emissions, 100 = Low emissions

Country Extract of country table See full interactive version	Emissions Index 0-100	Carbon Emissions Total	Carbon Emissions Per Capita	Methane Emissions Total	Methane Emissions Per Capita	Air Quality PM2.5	Water Access per capita

China	0.0	10,174.7	7.1	1,239.0	0.9	45.8	94.3%
United States	48.9	5,284.7	15.9	623.8	1.9	7.4	99.0%
Russia	57.3	1,678.4	11.5	853.0	5.9	9.8	97.0%
India	60.1	2,615.8	1.9	669.3	0.5	68.8	90.5%
Brazil	80.8	465.7	2.2	418.0	2.0	11.6	99.0%
Indonesia	83.4	617.5	2.2	335.1	1.2	19.1	92.4%
Mexico	92.0	438.5	3.4	145.1	1.1	22.7	99.0%
Australia	92.3	411.0	15.9	139.9	5.4	7.1	99.0%
Pakistan	92.7	248.8	1.1	151.0	0.7	58.8	90.1%
Canada	93.3	576.7	15.2	95.5	2.5	6.4	99.0%
Japan	93.7	1,106.7	8.8	21.1	0.2	13.4	99.0%

See: Access the interactive all country Environmental data table

Key:
Emissions Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
0 = Bad, 100 = Good.

Notes:
Format: Carbon data in Million MtCO2e and Methane data in MtCO2e, Air Quality: PM2.5

Methodology: Total Carbon and Total Methane data for each country has been indexed on a scale of 0-100 by using the standard deviation from the mean for each country. The implied Indexes are averaged to calculate a total Emissions Index which focuses on each countries emissions.

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SOCIAL

India's social indicators have been advancing in a number of ways , fueled by rapid economic growth aided by Government, a thriving entrepreneurial community, and the rapid digitisation of the increasingly efficient welfare state.
Life expectancy is now close to the global average. Education is still limited in terms of average years spent at school, some way behind the global average. But in general progress has been made on a broad front.
The most striking advance has been made in lifting the very poorest members of society out of poverty. One of the most authoritative organisations working in this area - the Oxford University Poverty and Human Development Initiative - in a 2018 report, noted that 271 million Indians had moved out of poverty in the previous decade. A phenomenal change, similar in nature and scale to the advances made in China a decade earlier.

Social Factors
Index: 0 = Poor social metrics, 100 = Excellent social metrics

Country Extract of country table See full interactive version	Social Factors Index	Life Expectancy Years	Median Age Years	Mean Years Schooling Years	Spend on Education % of GDP	Population in Work Population %	Population in Poverty %

Pakistan	70.2	67.3	22.8	5.2	2.9%	50.2%	3.9%
Bangladesh	70.1	72.6	27.6	6.2	2.0%	56.5%	14.8%
Ghana	70.0	64.1	21.5	7.3	4.0%	64.9%	13.3%
Namibia	69.1	63.7	21.8	7.0	3.1%	47.5%	13.4%
Mauritania	67.4	64.9	20.1	4.7	2.6%	41.5%	6.0%
India	66.9	69.7	28.4	6.5	3.8%	46.7%	21.2%
Nepal	66.5	70.8	24.6	5.0	5.2%	82.6%	15.0%
Brunei Darussalam	65.9	75.9	32.3	9.1	4.4%	58.8%	43.7%
Comoros	63.0	64.3	20.4	5.1	2.5%	41.4%	17.6%
Zimbabwe	62.9	61.5	18.7	8.5	4.6%	79.0%	33.9%
Laos	62.7	67.9	24.4	5.3	2.9%	78.0%	22.7%
Gambia	62.6	62.1	17.8	3.9	2.4%	54.0%	10.1%

Access the interactive all country Social data table

Key:
Social Factors Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100
0 = Poor social metrics, 100 = Excellent social metrics.

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GOVERNANCE

As befits the world's largest democracy, India has a high rating for Political Rights. It also is a relatively easy place to do business in terms of the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index scale of values.
However, India does not score so well on the Rule of Law index, or on the Press Freedom Index.

Governance Factors Index
Index: 0 = Extremely poor governance, 100 = Good as it gets

Country Extract of country Governance See full interactive table	Governance Index (0-100 Index)	Rule of Law Index (0-100 Index)	Press Freedom (0-100 Index)	Political Rights (0-100 Index)	Corruption Perceptions (0-100 Index)

Senegal	56.2	41.8	68.1	73.8	41.1
Malaysia	56.2	64.9	55.6	54.8	49.3
Mongolia	56.0	42.1	63.9	90.5	27.4
Suriname	55.3	46	74.4	4.8	95.9
Brazil	53.5	44.3	59.8	78.6	31.5
Qatar	53.4	73.4	52.9	21.4	65.8
United Arab Emirates	53.2	71.3	48.0	16.7	76.7
India	53.1	48.2	44.3	85.7	34.2
Peru	53.0	40.2	66.6	73.8	31.5
Burkina Faso	52.7	38.3	78.9	59.5	34.2
Dominican Republic	52.4	42.1	83.0	66.7	17.8
Lebanon	52.1	26.3	50.3	35.7	95.9
Ecuador	51.7	35.1	69.7	69.0	32.9
Lesotho	51.5	37.4	64.1	69.0	35.6
Kyrgyzstan	51.3	25.8	69.3	14.3	95.9

Access the interactive all country Governance table

Key:
Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.

Governance: 0 = Poor governance, 100 = As good as it gets.
Corruption Perceptions: 0 = Bad, 100 = Good.
Rule of Law: 0 = low rule of law, 100 = High rule of law.
Press Freedom: 0 = Low press freedom, 100 = High press freedom.
Political Rights: 0 = Low political rights, 100 = High political rights.

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Share of Global GDP - Global

India

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GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

Categories of Countries

Trade & Political Agreements

Forums

Share of Global GDP - Global

India