Brazil: A Lost Decade

Updated: April 2023


Key Insights
  • Brazil has suffered meager growth over the past decade.
  • Wealth, in GDP per capita terms, has actually fallen over the last ten years.
  • Overall, it’s performance in economic terms, has been abysmal.
  • Compared with China and India, the "BRIC" countries with which it was so closely identified in 2001, Brazil has massively underperformed.
 
ECONOMY SIZE

  • When measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms, including estimates for its large informal economy, Brazil's GDP is the eighths largest in the world, the second largest in the Americas region and fourth largest in the Emerging Markets.
Gross Domestic Product: 2022
Ranked by GDP
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GDP PPP
(Billions)
GDP Data Quality
Grade
Share of
Global GDP
%





Germany $5,009 A 2.9%
Indonesia $4,811 C 2.8%
Brazil $4,288 B 2.5%
Turkey $3,695 B 2.2%
France $3,537 A 2.1%
United Kingdom $3,477 A 2.0%
Mexico $3,377 C 2.0%
Italy $3,179 A 1.9%
Korea, Rep. $2,880 A 1.7%
Saudi Arabia $2,441 B 1.4%

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GDP Data Quality

Data Quality Ratings: Americas Region
Index: 0 = Extremely poor quality, 100 = Good as it gets
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Data
Quality
Index
Data
Quality
Grade
Base
Year
SNA
Version
Informal
Economy %
Resoucres
Index 0-100
Corruption
Index 0-100





United States 95.9 A Chained 2008 7.3 100.0 69
Canada 95.8 A Chained 2008 11.2 100.0 74
Chile 89.9 A Chained 2008 19.3 86.7 67
Costa Rica 86.2 B Chained 2008 26.6 91.1 54
Uruguay 81.2 B 2016 2008 31.7 80.0 74
Colombia 79.9 B Chained 2008 33.3 82.2 39
Brazil 79.6 B Chained 2008 33.2 81.1 38
Bahamas, The 79.4 B 2012 2008 30.2 100.0 64
Dominican Republic 76.7 B Chained 2008 33.9 72.2 32
Guatemala 71.3 C Chained 2008 48.6 73.3 24
Mexico 70.7 C 2013 2008 29.2 80.0 31
Suriname 69.4 C 2015 2008 33.0 57.8 40
El Salvador 69.2 C 2014 2008 40.9 82.2 33
Trinidad and Tobago 65.6 D 2012 2008 31.6 47.8 42

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Key:
Data Quality Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Poor, 100 = Excellent.

Resources Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Low level of resources, 100 = High level of resources.

Corruption Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = High corruption, 100 = Low corruption.

Grade definitions:
         A: As good as it gets;
         B: Use with caution;
         C: Unreliable for many purposes
         D: Extremely poor quality.


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ECONOMIC GROWTH

  • Brazil's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last 10, 5 and 3 years was 0.4%, 1.3% and 1.1% respectively.
  • On a 10-year CAGR basis Brazil ranks as one of the slowest growing economies in the Americas region and 23rd of 24 countries in the Emerging Markets over the past decade.
Brazil's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last 10-years
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Global
Rank:
GDP Data
Quality:
Grade
CAGR
10 Year:
2012-2022
CAGR
5 Year:
2017-2022
CAGR
3 Year:
2019-2022
Global Growth
Share:
Percentage




Russia 137 C 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Japan 138 A 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% 0.8%
Lesotho 139 D 0.5% -1.7% -1.8% 0.0%
Greece 140 A 0.5% 1.3% 1.5% 0.0%
Jamaica 141 E 0.5% 0.1% -0.7% 0.0%
Yemen, Rep. 142 E 0.4% -1.4% -1.1% 0.0%
Angola 143 E 0.4% -0.8% -0.6% 0.0%
Brazil 144 B 0.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4%
Italy 145 A 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Argentina 146 D 0.3% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1%
Bahamas, The 147 B 0.2% -0.1% -1.3% 0.0%
Kuwait 148 D 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Belarus 149 B 0.0% 0.2% -1.1% 0.0%
Brunei Darussalam 150 E -0.4% 0.4% -0.7% 0.0%
Trinidad and Tobago 151 D -0.7% -0.3% -2.2% 0.0%

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  • Over the past 10 years the global economy has grown by 35%. Brazil's contribution to this growth was 0.4% once allowances are made for the informal economy size.

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WEALTH

  • GDP per Capita has declined over the past 10 years in Brazil, performing poorly comparaed to other countries in the Americas region and in the Emerging Markets generally.
  • In GDP per Capita terms, Brazil ranks 20th for the Americas region and 18th for the Emerging Markets.
Brazil's GDP Per Capita Growth: 10 Years
Index: 1996 = 100

GDP Per Capita: Americas Region
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GDP Per Capita
PPP
(Int$)
GDP per Capita
Data Quality
Grade





Uruguay $31,844 B
Chile $31,502 A
Costa Rica $27,849 B
Dominican Republic $26,323 C
Mexico $25,670 C
Suriname $21,185 C
Colombia $20,989 B
Brazil $19,910 B
Bolivia $14,835 E
Jamaica $13,569 E
El Salvador $13,192 C
Guatemala $12,700 C
Honduras $9,401 E
Haiti $4,524 E
Americas Average $29,334 -
Emerging Markets Average $39,578 -

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INEQUALITY

  • The distribution of income in an economy and can be measured on a country by country basis by the Gini Coefficient. Gini values are not all up-to-date but in the case of Brazil the data relates to 2019, so is relatively recent.
  • World Economics has Indexed the Gini Coefficient in relation to each country for comparison purposes. The Index is on a scale of 0-100. A high value indicates a more egalitarian society - and a low value suggests a lot of the national income is in the hands of a relatively small section of the population.
  • Brazil ranks 114th globally, 23rd for the Americas region and 22nd in the Emerging Markets for Inequality.
Inequality Rankings: Americas Region
Index: 0-100, 0 = High Inequality; 100 = High Equality
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Regional
Rank
Inequality
Index
Poverty
% of Population




Chile 10 50.0 0.0%
Mexico 11 48.9 3.1%
Ecuador 12 48.0 6.5%
Costa Rica 13 41.3 2.1%
Panama 14 36.2 0.0%
Honduras 15 35.2 14.8%
Colombia 16 34.9 10.3%
Brazil 17 31.6 1.7%
Nicaragua 18 30.7 3.4%
Jamaica 19 30.7 0.0%
Guyana 20 30.7 0.0%
Bahamas, The 21 30.7 0.0%
Suriname 22 30.7 0.0%
Trinidad and Tobago 23 30.7 0.0%
Haiti 24 30.7 24.5%

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DEBT

  • World Economics produces GDP data in Purchasing Power Parity terms with added estimates for the size of the informal economy and adjustments for out-of-date GDP base year data.
  • Brazil's is officially reported as having a debt-to-GDP ratio is calculated to be 88% by the IMF.
  • Using the World Economics GDP database, Brazil's GDP is calculated to be 33% larger than official estimates. Its debt ratio is consequently calculated at 66.2%
Debt-to-GDP Ratio for Emerging Market Countries
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Global
Rank
Debt-to-GDP
Ratio




Cyprus 22 73.7%
Austria 23 72.2%
Jordan 24 72.2%
Zambia 25 71.1%
Tunisia 26 68.0%
Mongolia 27 67.2%
Mozambique 28 66.7%
Brazil 29 66.2%
Bahamas, The 30 66.1%
Germany 31 63.9%
China 32 62.4%
Hungary 33 60.7%
Jamaica 34 60.1%
Iceland 35 59.9%
Egypt 36 59.8%
Americas Average   54.3%
Emerging Markets Average   43.7%


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POPULATION

  • Brazil is the sixth most populous country in the world with approximately 215 million inhabitants.
  • Brazil conducted a national census in 2022. Read more from the World Economics Population Data Quality Ratings and see how Brazil compares to other countries around the world and in the Americas region.
Brazil's Population Breakdown
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Population
Size
(Millions)
Median
Age
(Years)
Age
Dependency
(Young)
Age
Dependency
(Old)
Age
Dependency
(Total)





India 1,406.6 27.6 38.1% 10.1% 48.1%
United States 334.8 37.7 28.0% 25.6% 53.7%
Indonesia 279.1 29.4 37.6% 10.0% 47.6%
Pakistan 229.5 20.2 62.8% 7.2% 70.0%
Nigeria 216.7 17.0 80.6% 5.5% 86.1%
Brazil 215.4 32.8 29.4% 13.7% 43.1%
Bangladesh 167.9 26.3 39.1% 8.6% 47.7%
Russia 145.8 38.8 26.6% 23.4% 50.0%
Mexico 131.6 29.0 37.3% 12.2% 49.4%
Japan 125.6 48.4 20.1% 51.0% 71.1%
Ethiopia 120.8 18.5 70.2% 5.5% 75.7%
Philippines 112.5 24.5 47.8% 8.3% 56.2%
Egypt 106.2 23.9 53.2% 7.7% 60.8%

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  • Brazil has a young population profile of 29.4% and a low old population profile of 13.7%. The average age is 34 years old.

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ENVIRONMENT

  • Brazil's total emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Methane are considerable placing it in the top 5 of polluters by volume but on per capita level, Brazil moves down the list considerably.
  • The World Economics Emissions Index (on a scale of 0-100, 0=bad, 100=good) gauges the relative emissions for a country. The Emissions Index is based on the equal weighting of total Carbon and Methane emissions.
Environmental Factors
Index: 0 = High Emissions, 100 = Low Emissions
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Emissions
Index
0-100
Carbon
Emissions
Total
Carbon
Emissions
Per Capita
Methane
Emissions
Total
Methane
Emissions
Per Capita
Air
Quality
PM2.5
Water
Access
per capita





China 0.0 11,472.4 7.9 1,213.1 0.8 38.2 94.3%
United States 47.0 5,007.3 15.0 755.7 2.3 7.2 99.9%
India 60.6 2,709.7 1.9 668.8 0.5 50.2 90.5%
Russia 63.7 1,755.5 12.0 694.5 4.8 8.9 97.0%
Brazil 79.6 488.9 2.3 443.0 2.1 10.9 99.3%
Indonesia 81.2 619.3 2.2 389.7 1.4 19.3 92.4%
Pakistan 92.0 229.5 1.0 168.9 0.8 50.1 90.1%
Mexico 92.3 407.2 3.1 143.3 1.1 17.8 99.7%
Saudi Arabia 92.4 672.4 19.0 113.8 3.2 57.2 100.0%
Australia 92.6 391.2 15.2 138.0 5.4 8.9 100.0%
Canada 93.3 545.6 14.3 103.9 2.7 6.4 99.2%
Nigeria 93.5 137.0 0.7 143.8 0.7 55.6 77.6%

See: Access the interactive all country Environmental data table

Key:
Emissions Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.
         0 = Bad, 100 = Good.

Notes:
Format: Carbon data in Million MtCO2e and Methane data in MtCO2e, Air Quality: PM2.5

Methodology: Total Carbon and Total Methane data for each country has been indexed on a scale of 0-100 by using the standard deviation from the mean for each country. The implied Indexes are averaged to calculate a total Emissions Index which focuses on each countries emissions.

  • Brazil was the 42th hottest country in the World in 2021 using average annual temperature data
  • Temperatures in Brazil have been steadily rising since 1980.
Averge Annual Temerature by Year: Brazil

Source: CCKP. World Bank Group, Climate Change Knowledge Portal


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SOCIAL

  • The World Economics Social Index averages multiple key social indicators covering Health, Education and Employment.
  • Brazil has a worse than average rank for its social metrics, 93rd out of 155 countries and 20th of 25 in the Americas region.
Social Factors: Americas Region
Index: 0 = Poor metrics, 100 = Excellent metrics
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Social
Factors
Index
Life
Expectancy
Years
Median
Age
Years
Mean Years
Schooling
Years
Spend on
Education
% of GDP
Population
in Work
Population %
Population
in Poverty
%





Panama 79.0 76.2 28.8 9.9 3.9% 54.0% 0.0%
Costa Rica 75.8 77.0 32.9 8.8 6.7% 48.6% 2.1%
Uruguay 75.6 75.4 35.2 9.0 4.6% 55.2% 0.0%
Dominican Republic 73.3 72.6 27.1 9.3 4.6% 57.0% 0.8%
Jamaica 71.1 70.5 30.8 9.2 6.0% 57.2% 0.0%
Ecuador 70.7 73.7 27.6 8.8 3.7% 60.7% 6.5%
Peru 70.4 72.4 28.2 8.9 4.0% 70.3% 4.4%
Brazil 69.9 72.8 32.8 8.1 6.0% 50.0% 1.7%
Mexico 69.7 70.2 29.0 9.2 4.3% 56.4% 3.1%
Colombia 68.3 72.8 30.8 8.9 4.9% 55.4% 10.3%
Nicaragua 67.4 73.8 24.5 7.1 4.6% 59.7% 3.4%
El Salvador 65.2 70.7 26.3 7.2 4.1% 53.3% 1.3%
Guyana 64.8 65.7 25.5 8.6 4.5% 43.6% 0.0%
Bolivia 64.2 63.6 23.9 9.8 9.8% 69.5% 4.4%
Honduras 58.7 70.1 23.4 7.1 6.4% 55.3% 14.8%

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Key:
Social Factors Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100
         0 = Poor social metrics, 100 = Excellent social metrics.

  • 4.4% of Brazil's population is living in poverty. Poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day at 2011 international prices
  • Brazil spends 6.2% of GDP on education, each pupil receives 8.0 years of schooling (on average) - under a year less than the global average.

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GOVERNANCE

  • Brazil ranks 68th globally, 14th in the Americas region and 12th in the Emerging Markets for Governance.
Governance Factors Index: Americas Region
Index: 0 = Poor, 100 = Good
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Governance
Index
(0-100 Index)
Rule of Law
Index
(0-100 Index)
Press Freedom
(0-100 Index)
Political Rights
(0-100 Index)
Corruption
Perceptions
(0-100 Index)




Trinidad and Tobago 60.1 49.7 15.1 83.7 46.7
Argentina 57.3 42.2 16.6 88.4 42.2
Suriname 57.1 50.4 25.6 86.0 44.4
Guyana 54.6 43.7 17.5 76.7 44.4
Panama 53.4 47.1 32.2 88.4 40.0
Dominican Republic 52.0 50.6 17.0 69.8 35.6
Ecuador 50.4 45 30.3 79.1 40.0
Brazil 48.5 46.3 40.2 79.1 42.2
Peru 47.5 40.9 33.4 76.7 40.0
Bahamas, The 46.7 55.1 100.0 95.3 71.1
Colombia 41.9 42.4 54.2 74.4 43.3
Paraguay 41.9 40 37.0 72.1 31.1
El Salvador 38.8 33.3 41.6 67.4 36.7
Mexico 37.0 34.4 48.7 69.8 34.4
Bolivia 34.4 26.1 48.6 69.8 34.4

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Key:
The World Economics Governance Index gives equal weight to all four criteria.

Index numbers shown on a scale of 0-100.

Governance: 0 = Poor governance, 100 = As good as it gets.
Corruption Perceptions: 0 = Bad, 100 = Good.
Rule of Law: 0 = low rule of law, 100 = High rule of law.
Press Freedom: 0 = Low press freedom, 100 = High press freedom.
Political Rights: 0 = Low political rights, 100 = High political rights.



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